Walden Extension Dining Table
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2021 08:39:00 AM
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
This data is as of October 17th.
Click on graph for larger image.
This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average.
The 7-day average is down 21.4% from the same day in 2019 (78.6% of 2019). (Dashed line)
Note that the dashed line hit a pandemic high over the Labor Day weekend - probably due to leisure travel, but is now at pre-holiday levels.
Travel usually increases seasonally after Labor Day due to business travel.
The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.
IMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: "we've updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year." Thanks!
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:
This data is updated through October 16, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - but might be picking up a little again. The 7-day average for the US is down 8% compared to 2019.
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).
Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.
The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 14th.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $147 million last week, down about 12% from the median for the week.
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).
This data is through October 2nd. The occupancy rate was down 9.6% compared to the same week in 2019.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021.
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.
Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021.
As of October 8th, gasoline supplied was down 1.8% compared to the same week in 2019.
There have been six weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now.
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.
There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.
This data is through October 15th for the United States and several selected cities.
The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 117% of the January 2020 level.
New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph).
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015.
Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are under 15 million subway turnstile entries per week, but mostly moving up recently.
This data is through Friday, October 15th.
Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA's public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2021 06:56:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 17, 2021
• Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"?
Monday:
• At 9:15 AM ET, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.5%.
• At 10:00 AM, The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 76, unchanged from 76 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).
Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $83.05 per barrel and Brent at $85.31 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $41, and Brent was at $41 - so WTI oil prices are up more than double year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.31 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.14 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.17 per gallon year-over-year.
Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"? Some comments on an interview with Ivy Zelman
by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2021 04:14:00 PM
On Friday, Sara Eisen asked: "Do you think this hot housing market gets even hotter?"And Zelman answered:
"No. I don't. I think the housing market is already starting to show some moderation. And I think that it is going to become even more evident as rates are starting to back up. And the continued upward pressure on home prices which is not sustainable is really impacting affordability. We are starting to see incentives by builders creep back into the market. And we are seeing resistance by consumers that are really questioning whether or not, not only can they can afford it, and do they really want to buy at the top of the market."
Newsletter Articles this Week
by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2021 02:11:00 PM
The blog will continue as always!
You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ Currently all content is available for free - and some will always be free - but please subscribe!.
Schedule for Week of October 17, 2021
by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2021 08:11:00 AM
The key economic reports this week are September Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.
For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October Philly Fed survey will be released this week.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September.
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.5%.
10:00 AM: The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 76, unchanged from 76 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September.
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.
The consensus is for 1.620 million SAAR, up from 1.615 million SAAR.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 290 thousand initial claims, down from 293 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 24.5, down from 30.7.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.06 million SAAR, up from 5.88 million in August.
The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for September 2021
October 15th COVID-19: Slow Progress
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 03:22:00 PM
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 406,570,875, as of a week ago 400,669,422, or 0.84 million doses per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Week Ago | Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 56.8% | 56.3% | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 188.7 | 186.9 | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3 | 82,324 | 95,171 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3 | 56,817 | 64,388 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3 | 1,248 | 1,399 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. | ||||
IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).
KUDOS to the residents of Vermont that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 70.4%.
KUDOS also to the residents of the 14 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Connecticut at 69.8%, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, District of Columbia, Colorado, and California at 60.2%.
The following 20 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Pennsylvania at 59.2%, Minnesota, Hawaii, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina and Ohio at 51.1%.
Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Montana at 49.4%, Indiana at 49.2%, Missouri at 49.0%, Oklahoma at 48.9% and South Carolina at 48.8%.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.
Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 12:15:00 PM
These are forecasts of the advance estimate of GDP to be released on Oct 28th.
Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts underestimating the impact of the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.
| Merrill | Goldman | GDPNow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/21 | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.1% |
| 8/20/21 | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% |
| 9/10/21 | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 9/17/21 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| 9/24/21 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% |
| 10/1/21 | 4.1% | 4.25% | 2.3% |
| 10/8/21 | 2.0% | 3.25% | 1.3% |
| 10/15/21 | 2.0% | 3.25% | 1.2% |
From BofA Merrill Lynch:
We continue to track 2% for 3Q GDP [Oct 15 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged after rounding at +3¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 15 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.2 percent on October 15, down from 1.3 percent on October 8. [Oct 15 estimate]
Black Knight: "Significant" Decline in Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 10:41:00 AM
Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.
This data is as of October 12th.
From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Another Week of Significant Forbearance Declines
As expected, we saw another significant drop in the number of active forbearances this week, as the first wave of final plan expirations continues.According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, active plans fell by another 10%, for an overall reduction of 143,000 since last Tuesday – on top of last week's 177,000 (-11%) drop.
Once again, declines were seen across all investor classes, led by an 88,000 (-19%) plan drop among loans held in bank portfolios and private label securities. The number of homeowners in GSE and FHA/VA loans in forbearance saw matching 6% declines, for 22,000 and 33,000 reductions respectively.
As of October 12, 1.25 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 2.4% of all active mortgages, including 1.3% of GSE, 4% of FHA/VA and 3% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.
Click on graph for larger image.
More than 450,000 homeowners have exited their forbearance plans over the past two weeks alone. With some 47,000 September month-end expirations still left to process and another 329K scheduled for review for extension or removal in October, the potential for further, substantial declines will continue into early November.
emphasis added
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in September
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 08:38:00 AM
On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.7% from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 13.9 percent from September 2020.
From the Census Bureau report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $625.4 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 13.9 percent above September 2020. ... The July 2021 to August 2021 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 0.9 percent.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in September.
The stimulus checks boosted retail sales significantly in March and April.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 12.1% on a YoY basis.
Sales in September were above expectations, and sales in July and August were revised up.
Friday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg
by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2021 08:01:00 PM
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in retail sales.
• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 27.0, down from 34.3.
• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).
Source: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search?updated-max=2021-10-18T06:23:00-07:00&max-results=10
Komentar :
Posting Komentar